Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Exponential Growth - Fishing for Readers

Years ago there was a television commercial (I believe it was for a hair care product) that stated that if you told two people and they told two people and they told two people etc. Shortly the screen was filled with 32 beautiful young women (Models), all with gorgeous hair. Just the thought of that commercial makes me horny.

This is basically the theory of Exponential Growth. The opposite theory is called Exponential Decay. It is taught in an abysmal course of mathematical science called Statistics. At one point in my life I knew the mathematical formula for Exponential Growth, but have long forgotten it. As well I should have.

However I do believe in theory, but with some addendum's, if it is applied to human behavior vurses bacterial behavior (both theorems work when applied to Bacteria, but not to Humans).

But bacteria isn’t cognizant and to some extent humans are – some less than others; which explains why our correctional institutions are busting at the seams.

The 2X2X2X2 theory doesn’t allow for Diminishing Returns. Diminishing Returns is a theory advocated by the British Economist Malthus in the late 1700’s. Nearly two hundred years later, in the 20th Century, The Club of Rome expounded on his theory in a treatise named “Limits to Growth”. Although I do not totally agree with the way Malthus or The Club of Rome applied the theory; it still has some validation when applied to human nature.

For instance, if I email 10 people and ask them to visited my Blog and in turn ask them to invite 10 people who are not in the CC: list of that email to visit my Blog. Then have these 10 people to ask another 10 people to visit my Blog – this equals 1000 potential visitors. Fat chance! Why? Because only 8 of them (at the most) will follow through; Diminishing Returns. And of the possible eight that do, only 6 of their friends will follow through; again diminishing returns. And so on and so on and scooby dooby dooby (my apologies to Sly Stewart).

So here is my proposition to test these theories; let’s call it a test of behavioral science.

To all my 18 semi-regular readers (I had forgotten about Steve from Oregon when I had said that I had only 17 semi-regular readers in a past Blog). You should send the following email to 10 friends and ask them to past it on to 10 of their friends not in the To: or CC:. Who in turn should send it to 10 others on their email lists.

You can copy and paste the following (I will assume that everyone knows how to do this):

I read a Blog titled The Beach Bum Report (http://thebeachbumreport.blogspot.com/) on a semi-regular basis. It’s not a great Blog, but at times it has its moments. I thought that you may find it an interesting read. Read his Blogs and leave a comment (positive or negative) on any of his Blogs. And then pass this message on to ten people not on the To: or CC: list in this email.



This is an experiment in human nature.

Thank you for your (my semi-regular readers) support!

The Beach Bum

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14 Comments:

Blogger Steve Skinner said...

When I took statistics at WSU a million years ago, we referred to it as the “dark science”.

Tue Jan 13, 10:26:00 AM  
Blogger alfredo_tomato said...

You are assuming we have ten friends.

Tue Jan 13, 12:03:00 PM  
Blogger Thomas said...

What are the odds that the email will be passed among friends and not necessarily to ten new people?

Wed Jan 14, 07:43:00 AM  
Blogger The Curmudgeon said...

I'm really bad at following directions. But I did do something.....

Wed Jan 14, 12:34:00 PM  
Blogger alfredo_tomato said...

I added his link to my sig line on two large forums. It increased traffic when I had my site on my sig line.

Wed Jan 14, 01:48:00 PM  
Blogger Shel said...

I just messed up your control group. Curmudgeon from Second Effort didn't email me, he posted about you on his blog. So I hopped over here and read YOUR blog. But since he didn't email me, your theory now needs a different formula.

Thu Jan 15, 01:52:00 AM  
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